As Bitcoin hovers near a critical price point, traders face a pivotal question: Will Bitcoin stabilize above $108,000 by the end of this week? Myriad, a prediction platform, has ignited intense debate among investors as the deadline approaches.
The Current Market Landscape
Yesterday, Bitcoin traded around $107,640**, needing just a **0.33% increase ($360) to hit the $108K target. Myriad's betting pool showed a near-even split, with bears holding a slim 50.8% advantage.
Today, the scenario shifted dramatically. With Bitcoin retreating to **$106,000**—a key July support level—the odds now suggest a **69% probability** that Bitcoin *won’t* surpass $108K by July 4. This signals a potential bearish weekly close.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: What the Charts Reveal
The $108K Psychological Barrier
The challenge isn’t merely touching $108K but closing above it—a subtle yet crucial distinction.
- 4-hour chart data: Over 30 trading periods since June 25, Bitcoin closed above $108K only 3 times.
- Daily closes: Since June 9, Bitcoin has never achieved a daily close above this level—a historical rarity (just 8 occurrences total).
Technical Indicators at a Glance
- Failed Breakouts: Repeated attempts to breach $107,500–$108K failed, leaving upper wicks on candles—a sign of strong seller resistance.
- ADX (Average Directional Index): At 17, far below the 25 threshold for trend strength, confirming sideways movement.
- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA ("golden cross"), suggesting long-term bullishness, but price dip below 50-EMA hints at short-term bearish pressure.
- Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Shows building bearish momentum, conflicting with the bullish push needed for $108K.
Volume and Market Sentiment
- Volume Profile: Price trades above the control point (typically bullish), but proximity to resistance and weak momentum favor a pullback.
- Trader Activity: Most buy orders cluster near current levels, yet directionality remains unclear.
Weekend Effect: A Hidden Hurdle
The July 4 deadline coincides with Friday evening (U.S. time), extending into low-liquidity weekend trading (UTC 23:59 = early Saturday globally).
- Challenges: Reduced institutional participation, wider spreads, and thinner volumes make sustained breakouts harder.
Key Takeaways: Easy to Touch, Hard to Hold
- Historical Resistance: 4–5 recent rejections at $108K set a statistical precedent.
- Momentum Divergence: Price nears highs while RSI/ADX weakens—a classic topping pattern.
- Time Decay: Each passing hour without breakthrough lowers success odds.
- Volume Crunch: Holding new highs requires sustained volume, but ADX suggests deficiency.
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Critical Price Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $108,000 (target)
- Key Support: $105,000 (psychological floor)
- Post-Breakout Resistance: $110,000 (previous high)
FAQ: Quick Insights
Q1: Why is $108K significant for Bitcoin?
A: It’s a psychological milestone; repeated rejections here create a self-fulfilling resistance zone.
Q2: How reliable are prediction markets like Myriad?
A: They reflect crowd sentiment but can be swayed by short-term volatility—combine with technicals for accuracy.
Q3: Could sudden news alter Bitcoin’s trajectory?
A: Absolutely. A single whale move or geopolitical event may override technicals in crypto’s 24/7 market.
Q4: What’s the best strategy for traders now?
A: Watch for volume spikes or ADX crossing 20 as breakout signals, but set tight stop-losses below $105K.
Final Thought
While charts favor resistance holding, Bitcoin’s 0.33% gap to target leaves room for surprises. In crypto’s volatile arena, even minor catalysts—like a tweet or large buy order—could rewrite the script. Stay agile.
Adapted from Jose Antonio Lanz’s original analysis: "Moon or Doom: Will Bitcoin See Fireworks on July 4."