The April US CPI data will be released tomorrow, May 13, adding to the bullish sentiment fueled by the recent US-China trade deal confirmation. While past macroeconomic events like tariff introductions and trade wars have impacted Bitcoin’s price downtrend, key indicators such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could signal a market turnaround, according to crypto experts.
US CPI Data Release: Key Expectations
Following March’s negative CPI data, analysts anticipate April’s figures could spark a crypto market rally. 10x Research, a leading digital asset analytics firm, projects a steady CPI growth rate of 2.4% YoY for April. Other forecasts suggest a 0.3% monthly rise and a 2.8% YoY increase in core CPI, though uncertainty persists.
"If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs, this week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst."
— Markus Thielen, Founder of 10x Research
Recent reductions in US-China tariffs have already pushed Bitcoin past $105k, and a favorable CPI reading could further accelerate gains.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: New All-Time High Likely
Markus Thielen, in a CoinDesk interview, emphasized that steady CPI data could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin:
"CPI could be bullish and may bring new all-time highs."
This aligns with broader market sentiment, including Cathie Wood’s long-term prediction of BTC reaching $1.5 million by 2030. While Wood acknowledges challenges, growing institutional interest (e.g., Metaplanet’s Bitcoin acquisitions) supports sustained upward momentum.
Three Scenarios for Bitcoin Post-CPI Release
- CPI ≤ 2.3%: Signals cooling inflation, increasing Fed rate cut odds. Likely outcome: Bitcoin rallies to a new ATH.
- CPI > 2.4%: Fed may delay rate cuts, leading to BTC consolidation or a short-term dip.
- Neutral CPI: Bitcoin’s price remains steady, with investors awaiting further macroeconomic clarity.
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FAQs: How US CPI Data Affects Bitcoin
1. Why does US CPI data impact Bitcoin?
The CPI measures inflation, influencing Fed interest rate decisions and investor sentiment. Lower inflation often boosts risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. What CPI increase is expected for April?
Analysts forecast a 0.3% monthly rise, with YoY core CPI at 2.8%. However, 10x Research projects 2.4% YoY.
3. Could Bitcoin hit a new ATH after the CPI release?
Yes, if the CPI aligns with bullish expectations (≤2.4%), experts like Thielen predict a potential ATH.
4. What other factors could influence Bitcoin’s price?
Institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic policies (e.g., Fed rate cuts) remain critical.
5. How reliable are long-term Bitcoin price predictions?
While projections like Cathie Wood’s are optimistic, they depend on sustained adoption and macroeconomic stability.
Key Takeaways
- April’s CPI data (released May 13) could dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
- A 2.4% or lower CPI may propel BTC to new highs, per 10x Research.
- Institutional activity (e.g., Metaplanet’s buys) reinforces bullish sentiment.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects market conditions and the author’s analysis. Conduct independent research before investing.
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