Bitcoin (BTC) rallied sharply on Wednesday, climbing 4% to $109,700** after briefly testing the **$105,200 support level earlier in the day. The surge coincided with mixed macroeconomic signals—monetary expansion in the eurozone and emerging weakness in the US labor market. Despite trading just 2% below its all-time high, investor sentiment remains cautious, with derivatives metrics reflecting subdued bullish momentum.
Key Drivers of Bitcoin’s Rally
Eurozone Monetary Expansion:
- Recent data suggests liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB), boosting risk asset demand.
- Investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.
US Labor Market Softness:
- Declining job creation and wage growth indicators have heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like BTC.
Global Trade Tensions:
- Escalating tariffs (e.g., potential 30%+ duties on Japanese imports by July 9) have amplified recession fears, driving capital into decentralized stores of value.
Derivatives Market Signals Cautious Sentiment
- Futures Premium: Remained below the 5% neutral threshold, indicating limited leverage demand.
- Options Skew: The 25% delta skew held at 0%, reflecting balanced expectations for upward/downward price moves.
👉 Why are traders hesitant despite Bitcoin’s rally?
Stablecoin Premiums Reveal Regional Divergence
| Metric | Observation | Implication |
|----------------------|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|
| USDT Discount | 1% below USD peg in China | Weak local demand for crypto |
| ETF Outflows | $342M net outflows (July 1) | Macro uncertainty dampening interest |
FAQs
Q: Is Bitcoin’s rally sustainable?
A: While technical strength is evident, macroeconomic risks (e.g., trade wars, recession) could pressure short-term gains.
Q: Why is the futures premium low?
A: Traders avoid excessive leverage due to volatility concerns, preferring spot accumulation.
Q: How does the eurozone impact BTC?
A: ECB expansionary policies weaken the euro, driving capital toward inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s climb to $109,700 underscores its role as a macro hedge, but derivatives data reveals unresolved caution. Traders await clearer signals on Fed policy and global trade before committing further.