The specter of "quantum supremacy" once again casts its shadow over the crypto world. Recently, Google's quantum research team published a groundbreaking study suggesting that cracking the widely used RSA encryption—which safeguards bank accounts, e-commerce, and cryptocurrency wallets—may require 20 times fewer quantum resources than previously estimated.
This revelation, coupled with asset management giant BlackRock explicitly mentioning quantum computing threats in its Bitcoin ETF risk disclosures, has accelerated the countdown to a "quantum crisis," intensifying concerns about the future security of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Quantum Resource Breakthrough
Google's researchers disclosed in their latest paper that while a 2019 estimate suggested cracking a 2048-bit RSA encryption would require 20 million noisy qubits running for ~8 hours, new advancements now reduce this threshold to just under 1 million qubits, achievable in less than a week.
Key innovations driving this leap include:
- Algorithm improvements: Doubling the speed of modular exponentiation operations.
- Error correction: Tripling logic qubit density via enhanced error-correction layers.
- "Magic state cultivation": Stabilizing quantum components (T-states) for efficient complex task execution.
While the study focused on RSA, its implications extend to elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), the backbone of Bitcoin's security. If quantum computers crack RSA, ECC—including Bitcoin’s SHA-256 and ECDSA protocols—could also be vulnerable.
Notably, ~25% of circulating Bitcoin stored in legacy wallet formats (using raw public keys) face heightened risks if quantum decryption becomes viable.
Testing the Threat
Project Eleven, a quantum research team, has launched a Bitcoin bounty challenge to crack simplified Bitcoin encryption (test keys: 1–25 bits) using quantum computers. Their goal: gauge how urgently Shor’s algorithm could compromise ECC.
Quantum Risk Goes Mainstream
BlackRock’s May 2024 filing for its Bitcoin ETF marked a watershed moment—the first major financial institution to flag "quantum computers may threaten encryption" as a formal risk. This signals Wall Street’s growing acknowledgment of quantum threats to digital infrastructure.
While IBM and Quantinuum aim for 100,000+ qubit computers by 2033, current systems like Google’s Sycamore (53 qubits) remain far from practical decryption capabilities.
Michael Saylor, CEO of Bitcoin-heavy MicroStrategy, dismisses panic:
"Quantum hype is marketing for next-gen products. Bitcoin can upgrade its protocol, and governments rely on the same vulnerable encryption (SHA-256/AES). Risks are shared—no entity will sabotage itself."
Anti-Quantum Countermeasures
The crypto ecosystem is already adapting:
- Google integrated post-quantum encryption ML-KEM into Chrome.
- Solana introduced hash-based signature wallets.
- Vitalik Buterin proposed quantum-resistant Ethereum hard forks.
Key Preparations:
- Algorithm upgrades to lattice-based or hash-based cryptography.
- User education on migrating to quantum-safe wallets.
- Policy frameworks for seamless industry transitions.
FAQs
Q: How soon could quantum computers break Bitcoin?
A: Estimates range from 10–30 years, but Google’s research suggests timelines may shorten.
Q: Which Bitcoin holdings are most at risk?
A: Legacy wallets using raw public keys (~25% of supply) face higher exposure.
Q: Can Bitcoin’s protocol be updated against quantum threats?
A: Yes—community-driven hard forks could replace ECDSA with quantum-resistant alternatives.
Q: Are traditional banks also vulnerable?
A: Yes. Global financial systems rely on RSA/ECC; quantum risks are universal.
👉 Explore how crypto exchanges are preparing for quantum threats
The message is clear: Quantum decryption costs are falling fast. While panic is unnecessary, proactive measures—from tech upgrades to investor awareness—are critical to safeguarding crypto’s future. The industry must act now to outpace this evolving threat.