Crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin, operate in predictable 4-year cycles centered around the Bitcoin halving event. Each halving reduces mining rewards by 50%, creating a supply shock that historically triggers four distinct phases: Accumulation, Bull Market, Cycle Peak, and Bear Market. This guide breaks down each stage with historical context and actionable insights for the current cycle (2024–2025).
1. Accumulation Phase
Low Prices, High Opportunity
Key Traits:
- Stable price floor with low volatility.
- Long-term holders accumulate assets.
- Indicators like the Mayer Multiple hit historic lows.
Historical Timing:
- 2015–2016: Post-2013 bear market until halving.
- 2019–2020: Post-2017 peak until May 2020 halving.
- Current Cycle (2024): Q1 2023 – April 2024.
👉 Learn how to identify accumulation signals
2. Uptrend (Bull Market)
The Halving Rally
Key Traits:
- Prices surge post-halving due to supply constraints.
- Retail and institutional interest escalates.
- RSI/MACD show bullish momentum.
Historical Peaks:
- 2017: $19,600 (Dec 2017).
- 2021: $69,000 (Nov 2021).
- Current Projection: April 2024 – 2025.
3. Distribution (Cycle Peak)
Profit-Taking and FOMO
Key Traits:
- Extreme optimism; RSI enters overbought territory.
- Long-term holders begin selling.
- Puell Multiple spikes.
- Anticipated Peak: Mid-to-late 2025.
4. Downtrend (Bear Market)
Capitulation and Reset
Key Traits:
- Sharp corrections and low trading volume.
- RSI oversold; accumulation resumes.
- Past Lows: $15,500 (Nov 2022).
- Projected Downturn: 2025–2026.
Comparative Cycle Timeline
| Phase | 2013 Cycle | 2017 Cycle | 2021 Cycle | 2024 Cycle (Projected) |
|----------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------------------|
| Accumulation | 2012–Mar 2013 | 2015–Mar 2016 | 2019–Mar 2020 | Q1 2023–Apr 2024 |
| Bull Market | Mar–Dec 2013 | Mar 2016–Dec 2017 | Apr 2020–Nov 2021 | Apr 2024–2025 |
| Cycle Peak | Dec 2013 | Dec 2017 | Nov 2021 | Mid–late 2025 |
| Bear Market | Jan 2014–2015 | Jan 2018–Dec 2018 | Dec 2021–Q1 2023 | 2025–2026 |
Altcoins in the Cycle: ETH and SOL
Ethereum (ETH)
- Peaks: $4,870 (Nov 2021).
- 2025 Outlook: Likely follows BTC, peaking post-halving.
Solana (SOL)
- 2021 Peak: $258 (Nov 2021).
- 2025 Projection: Late 2025 peak.
👉 Discover altcoin cycle strategies
FAQs
1. How long does each cycle phase typically last?
- Accumulation: 12–18 months. Bull Market: 12–24 months. Bear Market: 12–18 months.
2. What’s the best indicator for cycle peaks?
Overbought RSI (>70), Puell Multiple spikes, and profit-taking by long-term holders.
3. Do altcoins always follow Bitcoin’s cycle?
Most do, but with higher volatility. Ethereum and Solana historically peak shortly after BTC.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle provides a framework for strategic exits. For the current cycle (2024–2025), key milestones include:
- Bull Market Start: April 2024 post-halving.
- Peak Projection: Mid-to-late 2025.
- Altcoin Peaks: Late 2025.
By aligning with historical patterns and monitoring indicators like RSI and Puell Multiple, investors can optimize their strategies. Whether exiting ~15 months post-halving (mid-2025) or after BTC surpasses its 2021 ATH, these insights offer a data-driven edge.
Timing the market isn’t about precision—it’s about probability.
### SEO Notes:
- **Primary Keywords**: Bitcoin halving, crypto cycle, bull market timing, bear market indicators.
- **Secondary Keywords**: Ethereum cycle, Solana peak, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple.