The sudden approval of Ethereum spot ETFs this week has sparked heated discussions about which cryptocurrency might be next. In this deep dive, we analyze the implications of Ethereum's ETF approval, the political dynamics behind it, and whether Solana (SOL) could follow suit.
Why Ethereum Spot ETF Got Approved
The path to Ethereum's ETF approval traces back to January's Bitcoin ETF greenlight. SEC's approval framework established three critical criteria:
- Existence of mature futures markets (e.g., CME trading)
- Minimal price divergence between futures and spot markets
- Market stability demonstrated through extended期货ETF performance
This created a template for crypto ETFs - proving markets aren't susceptible to manipulation. When Bitcoin's ETF met these standards, Ethereum's became inevitable since:
- Both have CME futures trading
- Similar price correlation data (90-day rolling analysis showed >95% correlation)
- Rejecting Ethereum would constitute unequal enforcement after Bitcoin's approval
The Political Battle Behind Approvals
Two key developments influenced SEC's sudden reversal:
FIT21 Bill Progress: This legislation clarifies SEC/CFTC jurisdiction by:
- Classifying tokens as securities (SEC) or commodities (CFTC)
- Using decentralization metrics (e.g., no single entity holding >20%)
- Likely classifying ETH as a commodity
- Election-Year Politics: With Trump courting crypto voters and FIT21 passing the House 279-136, SEC avoided a losing legal/political battle.
Ethereum Price Predictions
Based on ETH/BTC汇率 trends:
- Current ratio: ~0.04
- Expected rebound: 0.06-0.08 (2021 levels)
- If BTC hits $100K, ETH could reach **$6K-$8K**
Key drivers:
- Equal institutional access via ETFs
- Stronger DeFi/L2 ecosystem vs Bitcoin
- Macroeconomic tailwinds
Why SOL ETF Faces Challenges
Solana's path remains blocked by:
- No期货ETF - Prerequisite for spot approval
Centralization Concerns:
- FTX/Alameda historically held >20% supply
- Less decentralized than BTC/ETH
- Market Cap Limitations (~$75B vs ETH's $400B+)
👉 Explore SOL trading opportunities while awaiting ETF developments
FAQ: Ethereum ETFs and Beyond
Q: Could SEC still investigate Ethereum Foundation?
A: Unlikely post-ETF approval, especially if FIT21 passes. Focus shifts to clearly centralized projects.
Q: Why are Hong Kong ETFs underperforming?
A: Limited mainland investor access + fee disadvantages vs US products. Needs policy changes to compete.
Q: What's next for crypto regulation?
A: FIT21's Senate passage would force clearer rules, potentially accelerating more ETF approvals post-2024 election.
Market Opportunities Beyond ETFs
While institutional products develop:
- Ethena's synthetic dollar offers novel yield mechanisms
- 以太坊L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism) host next-gen dApp innovation
- SOL-based DeFi could benefit from meme coin trading volume
Always DYOR - past performance (e.g., LUNA) reminds us of crypto's volatility risks.
👉 Stay ahead with real-time market data
This analysis contains no financial advice. Comply with local regulations when trading digital assets.