The cryptocurrency market has undoubtedly been one of the most bullish investment sectors in 2024. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization surged from $1.65 trillion at the start of the year to a high of $3.7 trillion. Bitcoin led this charge, skyrocketing from $37,700 in December 2023 to an all-time high of $106,000.
However, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin might reach its peak within the next few weeks—meaning bulls should consider locking in profits soon.
Could Bitcoin Peak in Two Weeks?
Research firm K33's data indicates that Bitcoin will likely hit a new all-time high by mid-January, coinciding with the U.S. presidential inauguration. Their statistical analysis reveals that crypto cycles typically see 318 days between the first peak and the final peak.
Given that this cycle’s initial peak occurred on March 5, 2024, K33 projects the final peak may arrive around January 17, 2025—just days before the inauguration.
👉 Why timing matters for crypto investors
The election of Donald Trump—often dubbed the "most pro-crypto president"—acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s year-end rally. His campaign promises, including potential Bitcoin adoption as a national reserve asset, helped push Bitcoin past the $100k milestone.
Yet, K33 warns investors may be overly optimistic:
"Markets tend to overestimate policy shifts’ immediacy. We expect the current rally to peak before the inauguration, making this a natural zone to reduce risk."
— Vetle Lunde, K33 Research Lead
Supporting Analyses Point to a Q1 2025 Peak
- Technical analyst Adrian Zduńczyk predicts a 15–30% correction between late January and February, followed by a potential resumption of bullish momentum.
CCData’s research suggests two scenarios:
- Base case: Bitcoin peaks in early Q2 2025 (~$155k).
- Bull case: A November 2025 top (~$195k).
FAQs
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin before January 17?
A: While K33’s analysis suggests a local top, long-term holders might ride out volatility. Assess your risk tolerance.
Q: What’s driving Bitcoin’s institutional adoption?
A: Spot ETFs, regulatory clarity, and macro instability are key factors boosting demand.
Q: Could the ‘four-year cycle’ become obsolete?
A: K33 notes that halvings’ impact may diminish as Bitcoin matures, but volatility will remain.
The Bullish Case Endures
Despite short-term caution, many remain optimistic:
- Year-end 2025 price targets range from $200k to $500k.
- Institutional inflows and macroeconomic trends could sustain momentum.
As K33 puts it:
"Bitcoin’s bubbles and corrections will persist—but from ever-higher baselines."