The approval of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs in the U.S. over the past year has funneled billions from traditional markets into crypto, with Bitcoin becoming one of the fastest-growing ETF asset classes. This surge has intensified speculation about which cryptocurrency will next secure ETF approval—with Solana (SOL), ranked sixth by market cap and projected to reach $400–$500 this cycle, emerging as a top contender.
However, skepticism remains around whether a Solana ETF could gain approval by 2025, given unresolved debates over SOL's classification as a "security." This article delves into the current Solana ETF applications, SEC review progress, institutional perspectives, potential approval timelines, and market implications.
Key Takeaways
- If SEC relaxes regulatory standards, a Solana ETF could secure approval as early as late 2025.
- If SEC maintains its stance that Solana is a security, approval may be delayed until 2026 or later.
Current Solana ETF Applicants and Review Status
Five asset management firms have submitted Solana spot ETF applications to the SEC:
| Applicant | AUM (USD) | ETF Name | Target Exchange | Current Status | Stage 1 Deadline | Final Deadline |
|--------------------|-----------|----------------------------|-----------------|----------------------|-------------------|-----------------|
| Grayscale | $500B | Grayscale Solana Trust | NYSE Arca | Stage 1 Review | 2025.03.30 | 2025.10.11 |
| VanEck | $1.14T | VanEck Solana ETF | Cboe BZX | Stage 1 Review | 2025.04.03 | 2025.10.15 |
| 21Shares | $12B | 21Shares Solana ETF | Cboe BZX | Stage 1 Review | 2025.04.03 | 2025.10.15 |
| Canary Capital | N/A | Canary Solana ETF | Cboe BZX | Stage 1 Review | 2025.04.03 | 2025.10.15 |
| Bitwise | $120B | Bitwise Solana ETF | Cboe BZX | Stage 1 Review | 2025.04.03 | 2025.10.15 |
Applicant Profiles
1. Grayscale Investments
- AUM: $500B+
- Strategy: Convert Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF, enabling institutional exposure to SOL via traditional instruments.
- Background: Manages the largest Bitcoin trust (GBTC) and successfully transitioned it to a spot ETF.
2. Bitwise Asset Management
- AUM: $120B+
- Strategy: Emphasizes compliance and SOL’s market demand.
- Background: Known for crypto index funds and prior BTC/ETH ETF applications.
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3. VanEck
- AUM: $1.14T+
- Strategy: Collaborate with traditional finance to mainstream SOL.
- Background: Early Bitcoin ETF applicant with existing crypto ETPs in Europe.
4. 21Shares
- AUM: $12B
- Strategy: Leverage European ETP experience in the U.S., highlighting Solana’s technical edge.
- Background: Leading crypto ETP issuer in Europe.
5. Canary Capital
- AUM: Undisclosed
- Strategy: Partner with Cboe BZX to capture emerging market opportunities.
- Background: Newcomer actively filing for multiple crypto ETFs.
Challenges to Solana ETF Approval
- Securities Classification: SEC’s ongoing litigation labels SOL as an "unregistered security," complicating approval.
- Timeline Delays: Potential push to 2026 due to regulatory uncertainty.
- Market Demand: JPMorgan estimates $3B–$6B inflows in Year 1, but actual demand remains unproven.
Institutional Predictions on Approval Timing
- Optimists (2025): VanEck’s Matthew Sigel cites precedent set by BTC/ETH ETFs and growing DeFi/NFT demand.
- Conservatives (2026+): Bloomberg’s James Seyffart notes SEC’s securities stance and leadership changes may delay progress.
Potential Market Impact
- Institutional Inflows: Projected $30B–$60B in first-year investments.
- Ecosystem Growth: Enhanced credibility could boost Solana’s DeFi, NFT, and Web3 adoption.
- Reduced Volatility: ETFs may stabilize SOL prices through transparent price discovery.
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FAQ
Q: How does SOL’s "security" classification affect ETF approval?
A: If upheld, SOL would face stricter regulatory hurdles, likely delaying approval.
Q: Which applicant is most likely to succeed?
A: Grayscale and VanEck lead due to their track records and resources.
Q: Could Solana ETF approval trigger a SOL price surge?
A: Likely, given BTC’s precedent, but market conditions will dictate the scale.
Final Thoughts
While Solana ETF progress is tangible, 2025 approval hinges on SEC policy shifts. Investors might consider dollar-cost averaging during this volatile period. Stay updated on SEC developments and applicant milestones to gauge momentum.