Executive Summary
- Ethereum and altcoins surged last week in response to Bitcoin ETF approvals, with ETH outperforming BTC for the first time since October 2022.
 - Derivatives market activity for ETH increased, signaling potential capital flow shifts. While BTC still dominates open interest and volume, ETH has regained some market share post-ETF.
 - Relative performance analysis of Solana, scaling tokens, and sector indices against BTC/ETH highlights post-ETF risk appetite trends.
 
Following the Bitcoin ETF approval, the market experienced a "sell-the-news" pullback, with BTC prices dropping -18% to $39.5K at the time of writing. Investors are now asking: What’s next?
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Post-ETF Speculation and Market Shifts
Since mid-October, digital assets rallied on ETF optimism and capital rotation narratives:
- BTC’s market cap grew +68.8%, while altcoins followed closely (+68.9%).
 - ETH underperformed broad altcoins by -17% during this period.
 
Key dominance shifts (2022–2024):
- BTC dominance rose from 38.9% to 49.8%.
 - ETH held steady (~18% range).
 - Altcoins lost ground (28.3% → 24.2%).
 
Optimism around a potential Ethereum ETF has fueled ETH’s recent 20% rally against BTC—its strongest performance since late 2022.
ETH Investors Lock in Profits
- Peak realized profits hit $900M/day on January 13, aligning with "sell-the-news" behavior.
 - Short-Term Holder NUPL surpassed 0.25, a level last seen in November 2021, signaling bullish sentiment but also potential near-term consolidation.
 
Derivatives Market Focus Shifts
ETH derivatives activity highlights growing interest:
- Daily trading volume: $21.3B (vs. 2023 avg. of $13.9B).
 - ETH futures OI share: Rebounded to ~40% post-ETF (down from 45% in 2022).
 - ETH-BTC funding rate spread: Suggests ETH’s risk premium remains elevated but hasn’t spiked recently.
 
ETH vs. Altcoins: Performance Breakdown
Solana (SOL)
- SOL/BTC ratio surged 290% since October 2023, outperforming ETH.
 - No significant post-ETF price action.
 
Sector-Specific Trends
- Scaling tokens (OP, ARB, MATIC) drove much of the altcoin rally.
 - Staking/GameFi tokens rebounded but remain below 2023 highs.
 
Post-ETF: All altcoin indices rose slightly, indicating renewed risk appetite after BTC’s pullback.
Key Takeaways
- ETH emerged as a short-term winner, with investors capitalizing on ETF speculation.
 - Solana solidified its position as a top L1 competitor, though momentum slowed post-ETF.
 - Altcoins showed resilience, particularly scaling solutions and niche sectors.
 
FAQ
Q: Will an Ethereum ETF be approved next?
A: While optimism is rising, SEC concerns over ETH’s classification as a security could delay approval.
Q: Is now a good time to invest in altcoins?
A: Market cycles vary—diversify and focus on projects with strong fundamentals and adoption.
Q: Why did ETH outperform BTC recently?
A: ETF speculation and capital rotation from BTC into high-beta assets played key roles.
Disclaimer: This report is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
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