Price Overview
This week, Bitcoin opened at $37,756** and closed at **$41,272, marking a modest $3,500 increase. Market sentiment improved significantly, with key indicators shifting from bearish to neutral. Our on-chain analysis explores the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), short-term holders (STHs), and Bitcoin’s trading structure—providing insights into how price rallies could reshape market dynamics.
Technical Analysis
Short-Term Outlook
Bitcoin’s price action has broken away from its downtrend, showing early signs of an upward trajectory. However, it remains within a horizontal channel, with resistance near $44,300.
Mid-Term Perspective
Bitcoin has exited the bearish channel and entered a mid-term consolidation phase. Technically, this signals a transition from panic-driven bottoms to a neutral market environment.
On-Chain Data
1. Long-Term Holder Net Position Changes
- LTHs continue accumulating Bitcoin, reflecting strong confidence in the market.
- Sustained accumulation suggests foundation-building for a future bullish breakout.
2. Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL)
- NUPL at 0.5 historically marks the bull/bear threshold.
- Recent price stability has pushed LTH-NUPL above 0.5, indicating a gradual recovery from bottom conditions.
3. Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
- STH cost basis (~$46K) exceeds current prices, leaving most STHs underwater.
- This level could trigger selling pressure during rallies unless demand absorbs it.
4. STH Profit/Loss Ratio
- The ratio rebounded as buyers entered the market.
- A sustained ratio above 1.0 would help neutralize $46K sell pressure and support bullish momentum.
5. Output Age Breakdown
- Older coins (higher age bands) saw increased activity, signaling LTH-driven accumulation.
- While not directly price-impactful, this reflects energy buildup for future moves.
6. Median Spending Output Lifespan (MSOL)
- MSOL rose slightly from cycle lows, suggesting older coins are being traded.
- Such activity boosts liquidity, aiding the market’s bottom recovery.
7. Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)
- SSR bottomed this week, indicating renewed capital inflow into Bitcoin.
- Low SSR = more buying power for price appreciation.
8. Estimated Leverage Ratio
- Futures leverage is rising, increasing volatility but also signaling returning market interest.
- Contrasts sharply with previous leverage contraction during bearish phases.
Institutional Cash Flow
- Net outflow: $47M (slower than prior weeks).
- North America remains the primary outflow source, likely due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine conflict).
Altcoin inflows stood out:
- Ripple: $1.1M
- Polkadot: $800K
- Solana: $700K
Crypto & Macro News
- Ethereum Merge: Kiln testnet launched; ETH 2.0 expected by Q2/Q3 2025.
- ApeCoin: Volatile trading followed by whale accumulation (900K APE bought March 19).
- Russia’s Digital Ruble: Sberbank approved for CBDC issuance amid global regulatory tightening.
FAQ
Q: Is Bitcoin out of the bear market?
A: Key indicators (LTH-NUPL, SSR) suggest recovery is underway, but $44K+ resistance must break for confirmation.
Q: Why are STHs important now?
A: Their $46K cost basis could dictate near-term price action—watch for sell pressure at this level.
Q: What’s driving altcoin inflows?
A: Rotational demand from Bitcoin’s stability and speculative interest in projects like Ripple/Solana.
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