Key Data Points Paint Grim Outlook for ETH/BTC Pair in 2025
Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has repeatedly entered oversold territory against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, yet shows no signs of establishing a price floor. The current trading pattern bears striking resemblance to previous scenarios, with market structure suggesting a potential recurrence during Q2-Q3 2024.
Ethereum's Repeated Breakdowns Signal Further Downside Potential
The 3-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH remains below 30—a level typically indicating potential rebounds. However, historical patterns reveal that previous oversold conditions failed to mark definitive bottoms, with prices consistently declining further after each occurrence.
Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum:
- ETH/BTC pair has experienced multiple breakdowns since mid-2024, with successive drops of ~13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5%
- Both 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) maintain downward trajectories
- Failed bullish divergence on weekly charts (price making lower lows while RSI forms higher lows)
👉 Why institutional investors remain cautious about Ethereum
Ethereum ETF Outflows and On-Chain Data Suggest Continued Weakness
The "cursed" downtrend of ETH/BTC stands out amidst broader crypto market movements, exacerbated by:
- Persistent outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs
- Negative on-chain activity metrics
Key concerning developments:
ETF Flows:
- Spot ETH ETF net inflows dropped 9.8% to $2.54B in March
- Comparatively, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows only declined 2.35% to $35.74B
Network Activity:
- Median Ethereum gas fees (~1.12 GWEI) represent 1/50th of year-ago levels
- Mainnet activity hasn't recovered despite ETH's price rebound
Market analysts note: "ETH's risk/reward profile appears unfavorable compared to both Bitcoin and niche altcoins with lower valuations."
ETH/BTC Pair Could Decline Another 15%
Technical analysis reveals:
- Bearish flag pattern forming on daily charts (consolidation after sharp decline)
- Potential downside target of 0.01968 BTC (-15% from current levels) if support breaks
- Both 50-day and 200-day EMAs maintain steep downward trajectories
FAQ: Understanding Ethereum's Market Position
Q: Why is ETH underperforming BTC?
A: Combination of weaker institutional demand (ETF flows), shifting activity to competing chains, and unfavorable risk/reward metrics.
Q: What could reverse this trend?
A: Break above flag pattern resistance with EMA conversion to support, coupled with improved network activity metrics.
Q: How reliable are these technical patterns?
A: While historical patterns don't guarantee future performance, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors strengthens the bearish case.
👉 Expert analysis of crypto market cycles
Long-Term Implications for Investors
Market observers remain cautious due to:
- Sustained capital rotation toward Bitcoin and alternative Layer 1/Layer 2 solutions
- Lack of catalyst for Ethereum network activity recovery
- Institutional preference for Bitcoin's established market position
Note: This analysis contains no investment recommendations. All market positions carry inherent risk—conduct thorough research before making financial decisions.