Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by over 10% since reaching its all-time high of $108,353.
- The weekly candlestick pattern signals potential bearish momentum.
- Analysts debate whether this marks the end of the bullish cycle or a temporary retracement.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action
Bitcoin’s price peaked at $108,353** on December 17 before dropping 8% to **$95,700 by December 18. This correction aligns with:
- Record daily outflows ($680 million) from Bitcoin ETFs, driven by sell-offs across eight funds (unlike previous Grayscale-led outflows).
- Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing bearish divergence in oversold territory.
👉 Is Bitcoin’s bull run over? Explore expert insights here
Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals
Weekly Chart Observations
- Fibonacci Levels: The all-time high coincided with the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement, a common reversal zone.
Indicators:
- RSI: Bearish divergence suggests weakening momentum.
- MACD: Still bullish, with no divergences detected.
- Channel Breakout: November’s breakout from a 217-day descending parallel channel historically precedes extended rallies (current uptrend: 63 days).
Elliott Wave Theory Predictions
Long-Term Count: Bitcoin is likely in the fifth wave of its upward trajectory (started December 2022).
- Wave five’s extension matches waves 1 + 3 combined, hinting at a potential top.
- Sub-Wave Count: Suggests one final upward leg, possibly targeting $140,000 (1.61x length of waves 1 + 3).
Short-Term Outlook
- Support Levels: A drop to $85,825 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) is plausible for wave four’s bottom.
- Alternate Scenario: A triangle consolidation could precede a breakout, potentially reigniting altcoin momentum.
👉 Stay updated on Bitcoin’s next move with real-time charts
FAQs
Q: Is Bitcoin’s bull run ending?
A: While technicals show weakness, the Elliott Wave count suggests another rally phase before a cycle top.
Q: What caused the recent BTC price drop?
A: Massive ETF outflows ($680M) and profit-taking after the ATH.
Q: Where is Bitcoin’s next support?
A: Key levels include $95,700** (recent low) and **$85,825 (0.382 Fib).
Q: Could BTC reach $140,000?
A: Yes, if wave five extends as per Elliott Wave projections.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s correction reflects market recalibration post-ATH, but the broader bullish structure remains intact. Traders should monitor:
- ETF flow trends.
- Weekly closes for confirmation of bearish reversal.
- Fibonacci support levels for potential entry points.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risks; conduct independent research or consult a financial advisor.
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