Market Overview
Despite a flood of negative headlines, cryptocurrency markets remained relatively stable this week. Bitcoin closed the week down 2%, trading at A$24,300 (US$16.1K), while Ethereum gained 2% to A$1,755 (US$1,167).
- XRP rose 3%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) surged 21% following Elon Musk’s tweet hinting at integrating payments into his "everything app" vision for Twitter.
- Analysts suggest the lack of a deeper downturn could signal resilience, though Bitcoin may still test lows below A$15K (US$10K).
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index edged up to 26, reflecting persistent market caution.
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OTC Desk Analysis
Key Trends:
- Stablecoin Off-Ramping: Demand for converting stablecoins (e.g., USDT) to fiat dominated trading activity.
- Credit Risk Concerns: Counterparty transparency remains a critical issue post-FTX.
Macro Shifts:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked rates by 75bps to 4.25%, projecting a peak of 5.5% in 2023.
- US PCE Inflation Data (Oct.) and November labor market figures are pivotal for Fed policy direction.
Market Sentiment:
- DOGE volatility tied to Twitter developments.
- BTC/ETH buying momentum slowed after recent opportunistic inflows.
Top Headlines
BlockFi Collapses Under FTX Contagion
- Filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy, citing exposure to FTX.
- Top 10 creditors owed US$1.2B (A$1.8B).
- Holds US$257M (A$386M) for restructuring.
Australian Crypto Ownership Declines
- Independent Reserve Cryptocurrency Index score dropped to 45 (from 54 in 2021).
- 25.6% of Australians own crypto (down from 28.8%).
- Regulatory uncertainty cited as a top barrier to entry.
FTX Fallout Spreads Locally
- Apollo Capital and Telstra Ventures exposed to FTX-linked assets.
- Digital Surge (Brisbane exchange) suspended withdrawals due to FTX ties.
- 13 Australian exchanges pledged full reserve transparency via Blockchain Australia.
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FTX Drama Unfolds
Key Developments:
- Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to appear at NYT Dealbook Summit (Nov 30).
- US$70M (A$105M) in political donations revealed.
- Alameda Research withdrew US$240M (A$360M) pre-bankruptcy.
- Senate investigation begins December 1.
Bizarre Twists:
- FTX invested US$11.5M (A$17.3M) in a tiny Washington state bank.
- Amazon greenlit an 8-part series on FTX’s collapse.
Genesis and DCG Face Liquidity Crisis
- Genesis (crypto lender) halted withdrawals, hired restructuring advisors.
- US$500M (A$751M) shortfall reported.
- Parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) owes US$2B+ to creditors.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reserves confirmed via on-chain analysis.
Ethereum’s Roadmap: Shanghai Upgrade
- 8 EIPs slated for Shanghai upgrade (H2 2023).
- Staked ETH withdrawals and proto-danksharding (scaling solution) prioritized.
Bitcoin Bear Market Milestones
- Second-longest bear market in history (380+ days).
- Bitcoin "millionaire" wallets dropped 80% since 2021.
- Glassnode: Current sell-off mirrors historic capitulation phases.
FAQ Section
Q: Is BlockFi’s bankruptcy related to FTX?
A: Yes. BlockFi cited FTX’s collapse as a primary factor, freezing withdrawals days after FTX failed.
Q: How does the RBNZ rate hike affect crypto?
A: Higher rates may strengthen the NZD, pressuring BTC/NZD pairs and reducing risk appetite.
Q: Can Ethereum stakers withdraw funds after Shanghai?
A: Yes. The upgrade will enable staked ETH withdrawals for the first time.
Q: What’s driving DOGE’s price surge?
A: Speculation around Elon Musk’s Twitter payment integrations.
Q: Is Grayscale’s GBTC solvent?
A: Independent audits confirm reserves, but DCG’s liquidity issues remain a concern.
Happy trading! Stay tuned for weekly updates.
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