BTC and ETH Weekly Performance
- BTC/USD: Rose 5.1% (from $102K to $107.6K), testing key resistance levels at $108.5K and $112.5K.
- ETH/USD: Gained 6.9% (from $2,320 to $2,480), mirroring BTC's upward momentum.
Market Outlook
Bitcoin has traded within a tight flag pattern recently, briefly breaking below $100K due to the Israel-Iran geopolitical event. Current sentiment suggests:
- Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $108.5K could propel prices toward $125–130K, completing the long-term rally.
- Bearish Scenario: Failure to break resistance may lead to a retreat to trend support at $101K, with stronger support at $98K. A drop below these levels could trigger a sharp decline to $90K.
👉 Bitcoin price predictions for 2025
Macroeconomic Influences
- Geopolitical tensions eased, shifting focus to U.S. policy developments.
- Former President Trump hinted at a new Fed Chair and rate cuts, boosting market optimism (20% probability of a July cut, 2–3 cuts priced in by year-end).
- Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, reflecting low-volatility appetite ahead of summer holidays.
Crypto Correlation Lag
Bitcoin’s usual correlation with Nasdaq has weakened due to:
- Excessive long gamma positions.
- Sell-order clusters near $108.5–109K resistance.
- Altcoins underperformed; Solana stalled despite its upcoming ETF launch.
Volatility Trends
Key Observations
- Implied Volatility (IV): Dropped below 30 for daily metrics—a 2024 first—with March IV (September expiry) nearing sub-40.
- Term Structure: Steep in near-term (27–28 points for daily IV, 40 by late July), flattening significantly in long-dated tenors.
Trading Opportunities
- Skew: Neutral due to muted spot momentum. Short-term skew favors downside (higher realized volatility during drops).
- Kurtosis: Declined as sellers funded long positions, but buying dips is recommended given potential volatility spikes.
👉 Volatility trading strategies for crypto
FAQ Section
1. What drove BTC’s 5.1% gain last week?
Improved risk sentiment and technical buying near support levels.
2. Why did altcoins underperform?
Market focus remained on BTC/ETH, with Solana’s ETF anticipation failing to spur momentum.
3. How low can BTC drop if $101K breaks?
Next major support is $98K, with a breakdown potentially pushing prices to $90K.
4. Is now a good time to buy volatility?
Yes, especially during kurtosis dips, given the likelihood of higher volatility regimes.
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